General Chaos, politics

Predictions I’d rather not have to make,

#1: That if US forces fail to find an active chem/bio/nuclear weapons facility during the invasion, the Bush administration will create one to cover its ass sometime after the country is “secured”.

Considering that the “Scuds” fired at the US really weren't Scuds, and no WMD have been used thus far against US/UK forces, Saddam is either a)holding them in reserve in order to play the victim for as long as possible, or b) he doesn't have them in a form that he can effectively use them because they were scattered to avoid detection, or c) he got rid of most of them and the remainder are not currently in the hands of battlefield units, or d) all of the above. Facilities may never be found. The US will have to show something (other than a few mustard gas shells) to prove its case. George will have somebody gundeck it.

#2: Baghdad will not fall before May. Eventually, water and electrical services will be cut, and the US/UK will be forced to lay siege or face house-to-house fighting to prevent harassment by irregulars–just as they're now doing in Basra. Baghdad is considerably larger than Basra, and more heavily garrisoned.

#3: $74 billion will become $740 before the war is over. Occupational forces, an increased requirement for enlistment and activation of reserves, and possibly the return of compulsory military service will partially escalate the bill, as will the requirement for more infantry equipment, more Tomahawks (at a million a piece), and replacement aircraft and armor. Plus, there's the relief package and continued ops in Afghanistan.

#4: Additional reservists will be called up to fill the roles of active duty units reallocated to the Iraq war by the end of April. (See prediction #3).

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